The LA Condo Market Is Finally Correcting — Exactly as We Predicted a Year Ago

Over the last two weeks, Zillow, Redfin, CNBC, WSJ, Bloomberg, and nearly every major real estate outlet have finally acknowledged what we’ve been seeing in the trenches for months: condo values are softening, rates remain high, ownership costs are rising, and buyers once again have leverage.

But despite the headlines, none of this is new.

This is exactly what we predicted at the end of 2024.

For more than 20 years, The Condo Experts have been the leading indicator for the condo markets across the Westside and South Bay. Every major shift shows up in condos first — and we feel those trends months before the rest of the industry does.

We don’t rely on theory.
We rely on real transactions, real buyers, real sellers, real buildings, and real negotiations.

And right now, the market is simply correcting to the fundamentals we saw a year ago.

Why We Saw This Coming a Year Ago

At the end of 2024, we publicly said condo values were positioned for a 10–15% correction — and potentially up to 20% in buildings with financial or structural risk. That wasn’t guesswork. It was math:

• Rates weren’t going back under 6%.
• Affordability had stretched beyond sustainable levels.
• Delayed sellers from 2020–2023 still needed to move.
• Buildings were under pressure from insurance, dues, reserves, and SB-326 repairs.
• Buyers were becoming more selective and value-driven.

So why did the correction take longer?

The Pacific Palisades fires.

The fires created a sudden demand surge that temporarily held pricing up longer than the fundamentals supported. Once that impact faded, the market returned to the trajectory we forecasted.

Today, we’re seeing exactly what the fundamentals predicted:

Some buildings are down 2–4%, while others are already down 10–20%, depending on HOA quality, reserves, insurance strength, assessments, and upcoming repairs.

This correction didn’t happen overnight.
It has been building for more than a year.

A New Trend: Owners Who Bought Into the “Refi Later” Myth

There’s another factor now accelerating the shift — and the media hasn’t fully caught up to it yet.

From 2021 through 2023, many buyers were told by inexperienced agents and large brokerages:

“Buy now — you’ll refinance later when rates drop.”

Rates didn’t drop.
Payments didn’t improve.
And now many of those owners are under real financial strain.

We warned buyers early:

• Don’t buy on the hope of refinancing.
• Make sure the payment works today.
• Rates are not guaranteed to fall.
• Affordability drives corrections.
• Buildings will feel the impact first.

Now we’re seeing the consequences:

• Sellers who can no longer afford their payments
• Units priced at break-even or below
• Owners falling behind on dues, pressuring building operations
• Buildings absorbing the financial fallout
• New inventory emerging from owners who were misled

The silver lining:
Most of these owners put meaningful money down — so most will still exit with equity.
But their forced selling is accelerating the correction, particularly in buildings with weaker HOAs or rising operational costs.

Why We’re the Leading Indicator — Every Time

For two decades, major pricing trends have shown up in condos first:

• Early 2000s appreciation
• 2008 crash
• 2011 recovery
• 2018 plateau
• 2020 surge
• 2022 affordability break
• 2024–2025 structural stress cycle

Condos react first because they are the most sensitive segment of residential real estate.

Small changes in:

• interest rates
• dues
• reserves
• assessments
• insurance
• SB-326 findings
• building condition
• HOA strength

…dramatically affect value and buyer confidence.

And because we specialize exclusively in condos — closing transactions weekly from Santa Monica to Venice, Playa Vista, Marina del Rey, West LA, Brentwood, West Hollywood, Redondo Beach, Manhattan Beach, and Torrance — we see the shifts before they become headlines.

Leading indicators do not live in news articles.
They live inside escrows.

This is why our clients — buyers and sellers — move earlier, smarter, and more strategically.

What This Correction Means for Sellers

If you’re considering selling in 2025–2026, here’s the reality:

1. Your equity is still strong — but timing now matters.

Delaying is costing leverage.

2. Buyers want move-in-ready units.

In uncertain markets, buyers won’t invest extra money into depreciating assets.

3. Your building now matters as much as your unit.

Reserves, dues, insurance, and SB-326 findings heavily shape value.

4. Pricing shifts show up inside escrows first.

Units that sold immediately last year are now sitting.

5. Most agents cannot interpret building-level risk.

And sellers pay the price for that blind spot.

 If you want a clear plan for selling in 2025–2026, start here:
https://www.condosalesexperts.com/seller

What This Correction Means for Buyers

For buyers, this market is creating a rare window of opportunity — but only with the right strategy.

Our clients are:

• buying 10–20% below previous highs
• building a margin of safety into every purchase
• choosing buildings positioned for future value
• using HOA, insurance, and SB-326 data to negotiate
• applying the principle the smartest investors live by: You make your money when you buy — not when you sell.

Correct buying protects your downside and positions you for upside when the building improves or the market stabilizes.

 Start your search with clarity:
https://www.condosalesexperts.com/buyer

Why Condo Specialists Matter More Than Ever

Most agents:

• don’t read HOA financials
• don’t understand reserves or insurance
• don’t analyze SB-326
• don’t track building-level pressure
• don’t see patterns forming inside escrows

We do.
Because condos aren’t 5% of our business — they’re 100% of our business.

When you’re dealing with aging buildings, rising costs, pressured sellers, and selective buyers, you don’t need hype.
You need expertise.

Final Thought

We’ve asked industry professionals, lenders, and economists:

“If values aren’t going to adjust 10–20%,
what economic argument are we missing?”

No one has an answer — because the fundamentals are clear:

Pressure creates adjustment.
Adjustment creates opportunity.
Strategy creates winners.

Whether you’re buying or selling, the next 12–18 months will reward smart planning — not luck.

Start with clarity:

https://www.condosalesexperts.com/seller
https://www.condosalesexperts.com/buyer
https://www.condosalesexperts.com/blog